Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
